Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

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Current Probability

87.5%

24h Change

Unchanged

Signal Score

29/100

Data Confidence

High (82)

volume is 2.0x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 2 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-16 18:01 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability was effectively unchanged
24h volume is 2.0x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $246,439

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

87.5%

24h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

107 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 16, 06:00 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/16/2026, 6:00:00 PM	87.5%
9/16/2026, 5:00:00 PM	87.5%
9/16/2026, 4:00:00 PM	87.5%
9/16/2026, 3:00:00 PM	87.5%
9/16/2026, 2:00:00 PM	88.5%
9/16/2026, 1:15:00 PM	88.5%
9/16/2026, 1:00:00 PM	88.5%
9/16/2026, 12:00:00 PM	87.5%
9/16/2026, 11:00:00 AM	87.5%
9/16/2026, 10:00:00 AM	87.5%
9/16/2026, 9:00:00 AM	87.5%
9/16/2026, 8:00:00 AM	87.5%
9/16/2026, 7:15:00 AM	87.5%
9/16/2026, 7:00:00 AM	87.5%
9/16/2026, 6:00:00 AM	87.5%
9/16/2026, 5:00:00 AM	87.5%
9/16/2026, 4:00:00 AM	87.5%
9/16/2026, 3:00:00 AM	87.5%
9/16/2026, 2:00:00 AM	87.5%
9/16/2026, 1:00:00 AM	87.5%
9/16/2026, 12:00:00 AM	88.5%
9/15/2026, 11:00:00 PM	87.5%
9/15/2026, 10:00:00 PM	87.5%
9/15/2026, 9:00:00 PM	88.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$5.3M

Volume vs Baseline

2.0x baseline

Liquidity

$246.4K

Market Significance

High (87)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Sep 16, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 29/100.

Probability Momentum 0

Volume Activity 42

Liquidity Quality 100

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (82)

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