Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?

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Current Probability

0.5%

24h Change

-0.4 pp

Signal Score

49/100

Data Confidence

High (89)

24h probability fell 0.4pp; volume is 3.7x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 2 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-16 18:01 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 0.4pp
24h volume is 3.7x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $151,178

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.5%

24h Change

-0.4 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

107 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 16, 06:00 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/16/2026, 6:00:00 PM	0.5%
9/16/2026, 5:00:00 PM	0.9%
9/16/2026, 4:00:00 PM	0.8%
9/16/2026, 3:00:00 PM	0.9%
9/16/2026, 2:00:00 PM	0.9%
9/16/2026, 1:15:00 PM	0.8%
9/16/2026, 1:00:00 PM	0.8%
9/16/2026, 12:00:00 PM	0.8%
9/16/2026, 11:00:00 AM	0.8%
9/16/2026, 10:00:00 AM	0.8%
9/16/2026, 9:00:00 AM	0.7%
9/16/2026, 8:00:00 AM	0.7%
9/16/2026, 7:15:00 AM	0.7%
9/16/2026, 7:00:00 AM	0.8%
9/16/2026, 6:00:00 AM	0.9%
9/16/2026, 5:00:00 AM	0.9%
9/16/2026, 4:00:00 AM	0.9%
9/16/2026, 3:00:00 AM	0.9%
9/16/2026, 2:00:00 AM	0.9%
9/16/2026, 1:00:00 AM	0.9%
9/16/2026, 12:00:00 AM	0.9%
9/15/2026, 11:00:00 PM	0.9%
9/15/2026, 10:00:00 PM	0.9%
9/15/2026, 9:00:00 PM	0.9%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-0.4 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$6.9M

Volume vs Baseline

3.7x baseline

Liquidity

$151.2K

Market Significance

High (87)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Sep 16, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 49/100.

Probability Momentum 2

Volume Activity 81

Liquidity Quality 100

Persistence 87

Data Confidence High (89)

Next Steps

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