Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Fed Decision in September?

Open · Resolves in 43 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

1.3%

24h Change

Unchanged

Signal Score

16/100

Data Confidence

High (80)

volume is 0.7x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 11 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-03 23:54 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability was effectively unchanged
24h volume is 0.7x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $198,533

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

1.3%

24h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

162 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 3, 11:45 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/3/2026, 11:45:00 PM	1.3%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 PM	1.3%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 PM	1.3%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 PM	1.3%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 PM	1.3%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 PM	1.3%
8/3/2026, 6:15:00 PM	1.3%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 PM	1.3%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 PM	1.3%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM	1.4%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 PM	1.3%
8/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM	1.3%
8/3/2026, 1:00:00 PM	1.4%
8/3/2026, 12:00:00 PM	1.4%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 AM	1.4%
8/3/2026, 10:45:00 AM	1.4%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 AM	1.4%
8/3/2026, 9:15:00 AM	1.4%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 AM	1.4%
8/3/2026, 8:45:00 AM	1.4%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 AM	1.4%
8/3/2026, 7:30:00 AM	1.4%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 AM	1.4%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 AM	1.4%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$82.4K

Volume vs Baseline

0.7x baseline

Liquidity

$198.5K

Market Significance

High (74)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 43 days

End Date

Sep 16, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 16/100.

Probability Momentum 0

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 89

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (80)

Next Steps

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