Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026?

Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...?

Open · Resolves in 57 days View on Polymarket ↗ (opens in a new tab)

Current Probability

9.0%

24h Change

Unchanged

Signal Score

39/100

Data Confidence

High (78)

24h probability fell 0.0pp; volume is 167.4x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 4 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-07-30 18:59 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

  • 24h probability fell 0.0pp
  • 24h volume is 167.4x the prior 6-day daily average
  • Low liquidity ($3,038)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Latest 9.0% · Jul 30, 06:45 PM

9% 11% 11% Jul 29 Jul 30 Jul 30 Jul 30 Current 9.0% · 7d of stored history · 26 pts

Current

9.0%

24h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

37 stored snapshots · Latest sample Jul 30, 06:45 PM

View history table
Time Probability
7/30/2026, 6:45:00 PM 9.0%
7/30/2026, 6:00:00 PM 9.0%
7/30/2026, 5:00:00 PM 9.0%
7/30/2026, 4:00:00 PM 9.0%
7/30/2026, 3:00:00 PM 9.0%
7/30/2026, 2:00:00 PM 9.0%
7/30/2026, 1:15:00 PM 9.0%
7/30/2026, 1:00:00 PM 9.0%
7/30/2026, 12:00:00 PM 9.0%
7/30/2026, 11:00:00 AM 9.0%
7/30/2026, 10:00:00 AM 9.0%
7/30/2026, 9:00:00 AM 9.5%
7/30/2026, 8:00:00 AM 9.0%
7/30/2026, 7:00:00 AM 10.0%
7/30/2026, 6:00:00 AM 9.5%
7/30/2026, 5:00:00 AM 9.0%
7/30/2026, 4:00:00 AM 9.0%
7/30/2026, 3:00:00 AM 9.0%
7/30/2026, 2:00:00 AM 9.0%
7/30/2026, 1:00:00 AM 9.0%
7/30/2026, 12:00:00 AM 9.0%
7/29/2026, 11:00:00 PM 9.0%
7/29/2026, 10:00:00 PM 9.0%
7/29/2026, 9:00:00 PM 9.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$58.6K

Volume vs Baseline

167.4x baseline

Liquidity

$3.0K

Market Significance

Moderate (65)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 57 days

End Date

Sep 30, 2026

Attention Score

65

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 39/100.

Probability Momentum 0
Volume Activity 100
Liquidity Quality 76
Persistence 20
Data Confidence High (78)

Next Steps

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