Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?

Open · Resolves in 280 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

10.3%

24h Change

-44.3 pp

Signal Score

84/100

Data Confidence

High (79)

24h probability fell 44.3pp; volume is 5.7x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 4 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-19 20:19 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 44.3pp
24h volume is 5.7x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $16,017

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

10.3%

24h Change

-44.3 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

55 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 19, 08:15 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/19/2026, 8:15:00 PM	10.3%
9/19/2026, 8:00:00 PM	8.3%
9/19/2026, 7:00:00 PM	5.5%
9/19/2026, 6:00:00 PM	5.4%
9/19/2026, 5:00:00 PM	5.4%
9/19/2026, 4:00:00 PM	5.8%
9/19/2026, 3:00:00 PM	5.8%
9/19/2026, 2:00:00 PM	5.7%
9/19/2026, 1:00:00 PM	5.6%
9/19/2026, 12:15:00 PM	5.5%
9/19/2026, 12:00:00 PM	5.4%
9/19/2026, 11:00:00 AM	4.8%
9/19/2026, 10:00:00 AM	4.8%
9/19/2026, 9:00:00 AM	5.4%
9/19/2026, 8:00:00 AM	5.3%
9/19/2026, 7:00:00 AM	5.0%
9/19/2026, 6:00:00 AM	4.9%
9/19/2026, 5:00:00 AM	4.9%
9/19/2026, 4:00:00 AM	3.5%
9/19/2026, 3:00:00 AM	3.3%
9/19/2026, 2:00:00 AM	4.2%
9/19/2026, 1:00:00 AM	4.5%
9/19/2026, 12:00:00 AM	4.9%
9/18/2026, 11:00:00 PM	3.1%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+4.8 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$92.9K

Volume vs Baseline

5.7x baseline

Liquidity

$16.0K

Market Significance

High (80)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 280 days

End Date

Jul 1, 2027

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 84/100.

Probability Momentum 100

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 83

Persistence 10

Data Confidence High (79)

Next Steps

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