European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?

European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by...?

Open · Resolves in 149 days View on Polymarket ↗ (opens in a new tab)

Current Probability

8.0%

24h Change

+1.0 pp

Signal Score

41/100

Data Confidence

High (79)

24h probability rose 1.0pp; volume is 363.6x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 14 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-07-21 10:44 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

  • 24h probability rose 1.0pp
  • 24h volume is 363.6x the prior 6-day daily average
  • Liquidity depth $19,321

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

No samples yet

Not enough history to chart yet (7d of stored history, 0 point s). Charts fill in after sync backfills CLOB history.

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Current

8.0%

24h Change

+1.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

0 stored snapshots

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$36.7K

Volume vs Baseline

363.6x baseline

Liquidity

$19.3K

Market Significance

High (73)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 149 days

End Date

Dec 31, 2026

Attention Score

67

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 41/100.

Probability Momentum 3
Volume Activity 100
Liquidity Quality 80
Persistence 20
Data Confidence High (79)

Next Steps

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