Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?
Current Probability
2.1%
24h Change
-6.3 pp
Signal Score
49/100
Data Confidence
High (79)
24h probability fell 6.3pp; volume is 36.7x the prior 6-day daily average
Why This Signal Matters
Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.
- 24h probability fell 6.3pp
- 24h volume is 36.7x the prior 6-day daily average
- Liquidity depth $56,899
Probability History
Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.
Current
2.1%
24h Change
-6.3 pp
7d Change
Insufficient 7d price history
Coverage
7d of stored history
View history table
| Time | Probability |
|---|---|
| 7/30/2026, 7:30:00 AM | 2.1% |
| 7/30/2026, 7:00:00 AM | 2.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 6:00:00 AM | 1.6% |
| 7/30/2026, 5:00:00 AM | 1.6% |
| 7/30/2026, 4:00:00 AM | 1.6% |
| 7/30/2026, 3:00:00 AM | 2.9% |
| 7/30/2026, 2:00:00 AM | 3.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 1:00:00 AM | 3.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 12:00:00 AM | 3.5% |
| 7/29/2026, 11:00:00 PM | 3.5% |
| 7/29/2026, 10:00:00 PM | 3.8% |
| 7/29/2026, 9:00:00 PM | 3.5% |
| 7/29/2026, 8:00:00 PM | 8.5% |
| 7/29/2026, 7:00:00 PM | 8.5% |
| 7/29/2026, 6:00:00 PM | 8.5% |
| 7/29/2026, 5:00:00 PM | 8.5% |
| 7/29/2026, 4:00:00 PM | 8.5% |
| 7/29/2026, 3:00:00 PM | 8.5% |
| 7/29/2026, 2:00:00 PM | 8.5% |
| 7/29/2026, 1:00:00 PM | 8.5% |
| 7/29/2026, 12:00:00 PM | 8.5% |
| 7/29/2026, 11:00:00 AM | 8.5% |
| 7/29/2026, 10:00:00 AM | 8.5% |
| 7/29/2026, 9:00:00 AM | 8.5% |
Market Snapshot
Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.
1h Change
+0.5 pp
7d Change
Insufficient 7d price history
24h Volume
$40.7K
Volume vs Baseline
36.7x baseline
Liquidity
$56.9K
Market Significance
High (72)
Market Status
Open · Resolves in 57 days
End Date
Sep 30, 2026
Attention Score
73
Signal Quality Breakdown
Components behind the hero Signal Score of 49/100.