Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?

Open · Resolves in 57 days View on Polymarket ↗ (opens in a new tab)

Current Probability

2.1%

24h Change

-6.3 pp

Signal Score

49/100

Data Confidence

High (79)

24h probability fell 6.3pp; volume is 36.7x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 5 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-07-30 07:42 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

  • 24h probability fell 6.3pp
  • 24h volume is 36.7x the prior 6-day daily average
  • Liquidity depth $56,899

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Latest 2.1% · Jul 30, 07:30 AM

1% 5% 9% Jul 29 Jul 29 Jul 29 Jul 30 Current 2.1% · 7d of stored history · 25 pts

Current

2.1%

24h Change

-6.3 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

45 stored snapshots · Latest sample Jul 30, 07:30 AM

View history table
Time Probability
7/30/2026, 7:30:00 AM 2.1%
7/30/2026, 7:00:00 AM 2.5%
7/30/2026, 6:00:00 AM 1.6%
7/30/2026, 5:00:00 AM 1.6%
7/30/2026, 4:00:00 AM 1.6%
7/30/2026, 3:00:00 AM 2.9%
7/30/2026, 2:00:00 AM 3.5%
7/30/2026, 1:00:00 AM 3.5%
7/30/2026, 12:00:00 AM 3.5%
7/29/2026, 11:00:00 PM 3.5%
7/29/2026, 10:00:00 PM 3.8%
7/29/2026, 9:00:00 PM 3.5%
7/29/2026, 8:00:00 PM 8.5%
7/29/2026, 7:00:00 PM 8.5%
7/29/2026, 6:00:00 PM 8.5%
7/29/2026, 5:00:00 PM 8.5%
7/29/2026, 4:00:00 PM 8.5%
7/29/2026, 3:00:00 PM 8.5%
7/29/2026, 2:00:00 PM 8.5%
7/29/2026, 1:00:00 PM 8.5%
7/29/2026, 12:00:00 PM 8.5%
7/29/2026, 11:00:00 AM 8.5%
7/29/2026, 10:00:00 AM 8.5%
7/29/2026, 9:00:00 AM 8.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+0.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$40.7K

Volume vs Baseline

36.7x baseline

Liquidity

$56.9K

Market Significance

High (72)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 57 days

End Date

Sep 30, 2026

Attention Score

73

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 49/100.

Probability Momentum 21
Volume Activity 100
Liquidity Quality 84
Persistence 10
Data Confidence High (79)

Next Steps

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