Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?

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Current Probability

2.4%

24h Change

+0.4 pp

Signal Score

15/100

Data Confidence

High (79)

24h probability rose 0.4pp; volume is 0.5x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 3 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-04 07:27 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 0.4pp
24h volume is 0.5x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $184,539

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

2.4%

24h Change

+0.4 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

166 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 4, 07:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/4/2026, 7:15:00 AM	2.4%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 AM	2.4%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 AM	2.5%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 AM	2.4%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 AM	2.5%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 AM	2.2%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 AM	2.1%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 AM	2.1%
8/4/2026, 12:00:00 AM	2.1%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 PM	2.1%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 PM	2.1%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 PM	2.1%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 PM	2.1%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 PM	2.0%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 PM	2.1%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 PM	1.9%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM	2.1%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 PM	2.1%
8/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM	2.1%
8/3/2026, 1:00:00 PM	2.1%
8/3/2026, 12:00:00 PM	2.1%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 AM	2.2%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 AM	2.1%
8/3/2026, 9:15:00 AM	2.1%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-0.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$65.1K

Volume vs Baseline

0.5x baseline

Liquidity

$184.5K

Market Significance

High (80)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Jun 30, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 15/100.

Probability Momentum 1

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 88

Persistence 10

Data Confidence High (79)

Next Steps

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