US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

Open · Resolves in 99 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

99.7%

24h Change

+53.2 pp

Signal Score

86/100

Data Confidence

High (80)

24h probability rose 53.2pp; volume is 6.4x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 2 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-22 21:04 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 53.2pp
24h volume is 6.4x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $98,844

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

99.7%

24h Change

+53.2 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

118 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 22, 09:00 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/22/2026, 9:00:00 PM	99.7%
9/22/2026, 8:00:00 PM	99.7%
9/22/2026, 7:00:00 PM	97.5%
9/22/2026, 6:00:00 PM	84.5%
9/22/2026, 5:00:00 PM	64.0%
9/22/2026, 4:00:00 PM	59.5%
9/22/2026, 3:00:00 PM	59.5%
9/22/2026, 2:00:00 PM	59.0%
9/22/2026, 1:00:00 PM	64.0%
9/22/2026, 12:00:00 PM	65.5%
9/22/2026, 11:00:00 AM	66.0%
9/22/2026, 10:00:00 AM	59.5%
9/22/2026, 9:00:00 AM	46.5%
9/22/2026, 8:00:00 AM	46.5%
9/22/2026, 7:00:00 AM	46.5%
9/22/2026, 6:00:00 AM	47.5%
9/22/2026, 5:00:00 AM	47.5%
9/22/2026, 4:00:00 AM	47.5%
9/22/2026, 3:00:00 AM	47.5%
9/22/2026, 2:00:00 AM	47.0%
9/22/2026, 1:00:00 AM	47.0%
9/22/2026, 12:00:00 AM	45.5%
9/21/2026, 11:00:00 PM	46.0%
9/21/2026, 10:00:00 PM	46.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$77.8K

Volume vs Baseline

6.4x baseline

Liquidity

$98.8K

Market Significance

High (77)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 99 days

End Date

Dec 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 86/100.

Probability Momentum 100

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 89

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (80)

Next Steps

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