Will Vinicius Junior join Arsenal?

Open · Resolves in 27 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

19.3%

24h Change

-6.0 pp

Signal Score

52/100

Data Confidence

High (84)

24h probability fell 6.0pp; volume is 3.7x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 7 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-05 22:18 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 6.0pp
24h volume is 3.7x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $9,079

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

19.3%

24h Change

-6.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

161 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 5, 10:15 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/5/2026, 10:15:00 PM	19.3%
8/5/2026, 10:00:00 PM	19.5%
8/5/2026, 9:00:00 PM	22.4%
8/5/2026, 8:00:00 PM	12.7%
8/5/2026, 7:00:00 PM	25.9%
8/5/2026, 6:00:00 PM	15.5%
8/5/2026, 5:00:00 PM	28.9%
8/5/2026, 4:00:00 PM	37.4%
8/5/2026, 3:00:00 PM	41.1%
8/5/2026, 2:00:00 PM	35.9%
8/5/2026, 1:00:00 PM	32.0%
8/5/2026, 12:00:00 PM	34.7%
8/5/2026, 11:00:00 AM	34.3%
8/5/2026, 10:00:00 AM	33.6%
8/5/2026, 9:00:00 AM	32.6%
8/5/2026, 8:00:00 AM	37.0%
8/5/2026, 7:00:00 AM	37.1%
8/5/2026, 6:00:00 AM	39.5%
8/5/2026, 5:00:00 AM	44.6%
8/5/2026, 4:00:00 AM	46.5%
8/5/2026, 3:00:00 AM	42.4%
8/5/2026, 2:00:00 AM	45.9%
8/5/2026, 1:00:00 AM	30.4%
8/5/2026, 12:00:00 AM	28.1%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-3.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$84.2K

Volume vs Baseline

3.7x baseline

Liquidity

$9.1K

Market Significance

Moderate (68)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 27 days

End Date

Sep 2, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 52/100.

Probability Momentum 20

Volume Activity 81

Liquidity Quality 81

Persistence 71

Data Confidence High (84)

Next Steps

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