Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid?

Open · Resolves in 27 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

79.5%

24h Change

+6.0 pp

Signal Score

55/100

Data Confidence

High (84)

24h probability rose 6.0pp; volume is 4.7x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 7 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-05 22:18 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 6.0pp
24h volume is 4.7x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $6,821

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

79.5%

24h Change

+6.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

161 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 5, 10:15 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/5/2026, 10:15:00 PM	79.5%
8/5/2026, 10:00:00 PM	79.5%
8/5/2026, 9:00:00 PM	77.0%
8/5/2026, 8:00:00 PM	77.5%
8/5/2026, 7:00:00 PM	72.5%
8/5/2026, 6:00:00 PM	82.0%
8/5/2026, 5:00:00 PM	71.5%
8/5/2026, 4:00:00 PM	58.5%
8/5/2026, 3:00:00 PM	58.5%
8/5/2026, 2:00:00 PM	59.0%
8/5/2026, 1:00:00 PM	68.5%
8/5/2026, 12:00:00 PM	64.5%
8/5/2026, 11:00:00 AM	65.0%
8/5/2026, 10:00:00 AM	66.0%
8/5/2026, 9:00:00 AM	64.0%
8/5/2026, 8:00:00 AM	63.5%
8/5/2026, 7:00:00 AM	63.5%
8/5/2026, 6:00:00 AM	59.5%
8/5/2026, 5:00:00 AM	53.5%
8/5/2026, 4:00:00 AM	52.0%
8/5/2026, 3:00:00 AM	55.5%
8/5/2026, 2:00:00 AM	53.5%
8/5/2026, 1:00:00 AM	64.5%
8/5/2026, 12:00:00 AM	70.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+2.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$89.2K

Volume vs Baseline

4.7x baseline

Liquidity

$6.8K

Market Significance

Moderate (67)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 27 days

End Date

Sep 2, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 55/100.

Probability Momentum 20

Volume Activity 96

Liquidity Quality 80

Persistence 65

Data Confidence High (84)

Next Steps

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