Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Open · Resolves in 35 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

0.5%

24h Change

Unchanged

Signal Score

17/100

Data Confidence

High (81)

volume is 0.7x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 42 minutes ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-24 11:25 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability was effectively unchanged
24h volume is 0.7x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $554,783

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.5%

24h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

178 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 24, 11:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/24/2026, 11:15:00 AM	0.5%
9/24/2026, 11:00:00 AM	0.5%
9/24/2026, 10:00:00 AM	0.5%
9/24/2026, 9:00:00 AM	0.5%
9/24/2026, 8:00:00 AM	0.5%
9/24/2026, 7:00:00 AM	0.5%
9/24/2026, 6:00:00 AM	0.5%
9/24/2026, 5:00:00 AM	0.5%
9/24/2026, 4:00:00 AM	0.5%
9/24/2026, 3:00:00 AM	0.5%
9/24/2026, 2:00:00 AM	0.5%
9/24/2026, 1:00:00 AM	0.5%
9/24/2026, 12:00:00 AM	0.5%
9/23/2026, 11:00:00 PM	0.5%
9/23/2026, 10:45:00 PM	0.5%
9/23/2026, 10:00:00 PM	0.5%
9/23/2026, 9:00:00 PM	0.5%
9/23/2026, 8:00:00 PM	0.5%
9/23/2026, 7:00:00 PM	0.5%
9/23/2026, 6:15:00 PM	0.5%
9/23/2026, 6:00:00 PM	0.5%
9/23/2026, 5:00:00 PM	0.5%
9/23/2026, 4:00:00 PM	0.5%
9/23/2026, 3:00:00 PM	0.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$99.3K

Volume vs Baseline

0.7x baseline

Liquidity

$554.8K

Market Significance

High (75)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 35 days

End Date

Oct 29, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 17/100.

Probability Momentum 0

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 90

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (81)

Next Steps

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