PR Prediction Radar

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Open · Resolves in 40 days View on Polymarket ↗ (opens in a new tab)

Current Probability

55.5%

24h Change

+3.0 pp

Signal Score

21/100

Data Confidence

High (81)

24h probability rose 3.0pp; volume is 0.7x the prior 6-day daily average

Data may be stale — last sync exceeded two update cycles. Freshness updates on the next successful sync.

Market data

Updated 4 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-19 12:22 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

  • 24h probability rose 3.0pp
  • 24h volume is 0.7x the prior 6-day daily average
  • Liquidity depth $533,293

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Latest 55.5% · Sep 19, 12:15 PM

52% 55% 57% Sep 18 Sep 18 Sep 19 Sep 19 Current 55.5% · 7d of stored history · 26 pts

Current

55.5%

24h Change

+3.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

175 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 19, 12:15 PM

View history table
Time Probability
9/19/2026, 12:15:00 PM 55.5%
9/19/2026, 12:00:00 PM 55.5%
9/19/2026, 11:00:00 AM 55.5%
9/19/2026, 10:00:00 AM 55.5%
9/19/2026, 9:00:00 AM 55.5%
9/19/2026, 8:00:00 AM 55.5%
9/19/2026, 7:00:00 AM 55.5%
9/19/2026, 6:00:00 AM 54.5%
9/19/2026, 5:00:00 AM 54.5%
9/19/2026, 4:00:00 AM 54.5%
9/19/2026, 3:00:00 AM 54.5%
9/19/2026, 2:00:00 AM 54.5%
9/19/2026, 1:00:00 AM 54.5%
9/19/2026, 12:00:00 AM 54.5%
9/18/2026, 11:00:00 PM 54.5%
9/18/2026, 10:00:00 PM 54.5%
9/18/2026, 9:00:00 PM 54.5%
9/18/2026, 8:30:00 PM 54.5%
9/18/2026, 8:00:00 PM 54.5%
9/18/2026, 7:00:00 PM 54.5%
9/18/2026, 6:00:00 PM 55.5%
9/18/2026, 5:00:00 PM 56.5%
9/18/2026, 4:00:00 PM 56.5%
9/18/2026, 3:00:00 PM 56.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$146.9K

Volume vs Baseline

0.7x baseline

Liquidity

$533.3K

Market Significance

High (76)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 40 days

End Date

Oct 28, 2026

Attention Score

21

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 21/100.

Probability Momentum 10
Volume Activity 0
Liquidity Quality 92
Persistence 20
Data Confidence High (81)

Next Steps

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