Will the Bank of Japan announce a 50+ bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?

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Current Probability

0.1%

24h Change

-0.3 pp

Signal Score

42/100

Data Confidence

High (81)

24h probability fell 0.3pp; volume is 18.9x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 2 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-18 04:33 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 0.3pp
24h volume is 18.9x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $80,985

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.1%

24h Change

-0.3 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

99 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 18, 04:30 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/18/2026, 4:30:00 AM	0.1%
9/18/2026, 4:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/18/2026, 3:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/18/2026, 2:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/18/2026, 1:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/18/2026, 12:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/17/2026, 11:00:00 PM	0.1%
9/17/2026, 10:00:00 PM	0.1%
9/17/2026, 9:00:00 PM	0.1%
9/17/2026, 8:00:00 PM	0.1%
9/17/2026, 7:00:00 PM	0.1%
9/17/2026, 6:00:00 PM	0.1%
9/17/2026, 5:00:00 PM	0.1%
9/17/2026, 4:30:00 PM	0.1%
9/17/2026, 4:00:00 PM	0.1%
9/17/2026, 3:00:00 PM	0.1%
9/17/2026, 2:00:00 PM	0.1%
9/17/2026, 1:00:00 PM	0.1%
9/17/2026, 12:00:00 PM	0.1%
9/17/2026, 11:15:00 AM	0.1%
9/17/2026, 11:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/17/2026, 10:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/17/2026, 9:00:00 AM	0.3%
9/17/2026, 8:00:00 AM	0.2%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$240.1K

Volume vs Baseline

18.9x baseline

Liquidity

$81.0K

Market Significance

High (75)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Sep 18, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 42/100.

Probability Momentum 1

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 93

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (81)

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