US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

Open · Resolves in 10 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

1.5%

24h Change

+0.8 pp

Signal Score

41/100

Data Confidence

High (79)

24h probability rose 0.8pp; volume is 5.6x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 1 day ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-02 11:46 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 0.8pp
24h volume is 5.6x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $86,940

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

1.5%

24h Change

+0.8 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

122 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 2, 11:45 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/2/2026, 11:45:00 AM	1.5%
8/2/2026, 11:00:00 AM	1.8%
8/2/2026, 10:00:00 AM	1.9%
8/2/2026, 9:00:00 AM	1.8%
8/2/2026, 8:00:00 AM	1.8%
8/2/2026, 7:30:00 AM	1.7%
8/2/2026, 7:00:00 AM	1.3%
8/2/2026, 6:00:00 AM	1.7%
8/2/2026, 5:00:00 AM	1.9%
8/2/2026, 4:00:00 AM	1.0%
8/2/2026, 3:00:00 AM	1.0%
8/2/2026, 2:00:00 AM	0.8%
8/2/2026, 1:00:00 AM	0.7%
8/2/2026, 12:00:00 AM	0.7%
8/1/2026, 11:00:00 PM	0.7%
8/1/2026, 10:00:00 PM	0.8%
8/1/2026, 9:00:00 PM	0.8%
8/1/2026, 8:00:00 PM	0.8%
8/1/2026, 7:00:00 PM	0.8%
8/1/2026, 6:00:00 PM	0.8%
8/1/2026, 5:00:00 PM	0.8%
8/1/2026, 4:00:00 PM	0.8%
8/1/2026, 3:00:00 PM	0.8%
8/1/2026, 2:00:00 PM	0.8%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-0.4 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$91.8K

Volume vs Baseline

5.6x baseline

Liquidity

$86.9K

Market Significance

High (73)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 10 days

End Date

Aug 13, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 41/100.

Probability Momentum 3

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 89

Persistence 10

Data Confidence High (79)

Next Steps

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