US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?

Open · Resolves in 28 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

3.9%

24h Change

-0.7 pp

Signal Score

17/100

Data Confidence

High (80)

24h probability fell 0.7pp; volume is 0.8x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 58 minutes ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-04 10:16 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 0.7pp
24h volume is 0.8x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $307,415

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

3.9%

24h Change

-0.7 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

167 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 4, 10:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/4/2026, 10:15:00 AM	3.9%
8/4/2026, 10:00:00 AM	3.9%
8/4/2026, 9:00:00 AM	3.9%
8/4/2026, 8:00:00 AM	3.9%
8/4/2026, 7:15:00 AM	3.9%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 AM	3.9%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 AM	4.0%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 AM	4.0%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 AM	3.9%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 AM	3.9%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 AM	3.9%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 AM	4.2%
8/4/2026, 12:00:00 AM	4.2%
8/3/2026, 11:45:00 PM	4.2%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 PM	4.0%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 PM	4.5%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 PM	4.8%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 PM	4.8%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 PM	4.7%
8/3/2026, 6:15:00 PM	4.5%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 PM	4.5%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 PM	4.5%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM	4.5%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 PM	4.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$68.1K

Volume vs Baseline

0.8x baseline

Liquidity

$307.4K

Market Significance

High (73)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 28 days

End Date

Aug 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 17/100.

Probability Momentum 2

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 88

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (80)

Next Steps

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