Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31

Open · Resolves in 100 days View on Polymarket ↗ (opens in a new tab)

Current Probability

16.5%

24h Change

-3.0 pp

Signal Score

44/100

Data Confidence

High (79)

24h probability fell 3.0pp; volume is 12.1x the prior 6-day daily average

Data may be stale — last sync exceeded two update cycles. Freshness updates on the next successful sync.

Market data

Updated 14 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-09 22:22 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

  • 24h probability fell 3.0pp
  • 24h volume is 12.1x the prior 6-day daily average
  • Liquidity depth $38,552

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

No samples yet

Not enough history to chart yet (7d of stored history, 0 point s). Charts fill in after sync backfills CLOB history.

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Current

16.5%

24h Change

-3.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

0 stored snapshots

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+0.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$115.5K

Volume vs Baseline

12.1x baseline

Liquidity

$38.6K

Market Significance

High (76)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 100 days

End Date

Jan 1, 2027

Attention Score

70

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 44/100.

Probability Momentum 10
Volume Activity 100
Liquidity Quality 87
Persistence 10
Data Confidence High (79)

Next Steps

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