Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
Current Probability
38.6%
24h Change
-1.0 pp
Signal Score
41/100
Data Confidence
High (79)
24h probability fell 1.0pp; volume is 7.3x the prior 6-day daily average
Why This Signal Matters
Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.
- 24h probability fell 1.0pp
- 24h volume is 7.3x the prior 6-day daily average
- Liquidity depth $87,236
Probability History
Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.
Current
38.6%
24h Change
-1.0 pp
7d Change
Insufficient 7d price history
Coverage
7d of stored history
View history table
| Time | Probability |
|---|---|
| 8/1/2026, 7:30:00 AM | 38.6% |
| 8/1/2026, 7:00:00 AM | 39.3% |
| 8/1/2026, 6:00:00 AM | 38.3% |
| 8/1/2026, 5:00:00 AM | 38.6% |
| 8/1/2026, 4:00:00 AM | 39.1% |
| 8/1/2026, 3:00:00 AM | 31.1% |
| 8/1/2026, 2:00:00 AM | 32.4% |
| 8/1/2026, 1:00:00 AM | 29.9% |
| 8/1/2026, 12:00:00 AM | 41.8% |
| 7/31/2026, 11:00:00 PM | 41.8% |
| 7/31/2026, 10:00:00 PM | 41.4% |
| 7/31/2026, 9:00:00 PM | 40.3% |
| 7/31/2026, 8:00:00 PM | 40.6% |
| 7/31/2026, 7:00:00 PM | 40.6% |
| 7/31/2026, 6:00:00 PM | 40.0% |
| 7/31/2026, 5:00:00 PM | 39.8% |
| 7/31/2026, 4:00:00 PM | 39.8% |
| 7/31/2026, 3:00:00 PM | 39.8% |
| 7/31/2026, 2:00:00 PM | 39.8% |
| 7/31/2026, 1:00:00 PM | 39.9% |
| 7/31/2026, 12:00:00 PM | 39.9% |
| 7/31/2026, 11:00:00 AM | 39.8% |
| 7/31/2026, 10:00:00 AM | 39.8% |
| 7/31/2026, 9:00:00 AM | 39.6% |
Market Snapshot
Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.
1h Change
+0.4 pp
7d Change
Insufficient 7d price history
24h Volume
$86.6K
Volume vs Baseline
7.3x baseline
Liquidity
$87.2K
Market Significance
High (75)
Market Status
Open · Resolves in 58 days
End Date
Sep 30, 2026
Attention Score
69
Signal Quality Breakdown
Components behind the hero Signal Score of 41/100.