Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?

Open · Resolves in 22 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

12.8%

24h Change

+9.3 pp

Signal Score

53/100

Data Confidence

High (79)

24h probability rose 9.3pp; volume is 9.5x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 6 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-09 16:40 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 9.3pp
24h volume is 9.5x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $39,368

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

12.8%

24h Change

+9.3 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

162 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 9, 04:30 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/9/2026, 4:30:00 PM	12.8%
8/9/2026, 4:00:00 PM	15.8%
8/9/2026, 3:00:00 PM	14.4%
8/9/2026, 2:00:00 PM	15.7%
8/9/2026, 1:00:00 PM	18.9%
8/9/2026, 12:00:00 PM	29.9%
8/9/2026, 11:00:00 AM	5.7%
8/9/2026, 10:00:00 AM	4.5%
8/9/2026, 9:00:00 AM	4.3%
8/9/2026, 8:00:00 AM	4.0%
8/9/2026, 7:00:00 AM	4.7%
8/9/2026, 6:00:00 AM	4.5%
8/9/2026, 5:00:00 AM	4.2%
8/9/2026, 4:00:00 AM	4.0%
8/9/2026, 3:00:00 AM	4.5%
8/9/2026, 2:00:00 AM	4.5%
8/9/2026, 1:00:00 AM	5.1%
8/9/2026, 12:00:00 AM	4.9%
8/8/2026, 11:00:00 PM	5.8%
8/8/2026, 10:00:00 PM	5.9%
8/8/2026, 9:00:00 PM	4.2%
8/8/2026, 8:00:00 PM	4.1%
8/8/2026, 7:00:00 PM	4.0%
8/8/2026, 6:00:00 PM	3.4%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-1.7 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$80.5K

Volume vs Baseline

9.5x baseline

Liquidity

$39.4K

Market Significance

High (71)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 22 days

End Date

Aug 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 53/100.

Probability Momentum 31

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 86

Persistence 10

Data Confidence High (79)

Next Steps

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