Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...?
Current Probability
99.2%
24h Change
+22.2 pp
Signal Score
63/100
Data Confidence
High (81)
24h probability rose 22.2pp; volume is 2.1x the prior 6-day daily average
Why This Signal Matters
Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.
- 24h probability rose 22.2pp
- 24h volume is 2.1x the prior 6-day daily average
- Liquidity depth $35,230
Probability History
Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.
Current
99.2%
24h Change
+22.2 pp
7d Change
Insufficient 7d price history
Coverage
7d of stored history
View history table
| Time | Probability |
|---|---|
| 7/31/2026, 10:00:00 AM | 99.2% |
| 7/31/2026, 9:00:00 AM | 99.1% |
| 7/31/2026, 8:00:00 AM | 99.1% |
| 7/31/2026, 7:00:00 AM | 99.1% |
| 7/31/2026, 6:00:00 AM | 99.2% |
| 7/31/2026, 5:00:00 AM | 99.4% |
| 7/31/2026, 4:00:00 AM | 98.9% |
| 7/31/2026, 3:00:00 AM | 98.9% |
| 7/31/2026, 2:00:00 AM | 98.9% |
| 7/31/2026, 1:00:00 AM | 98.9% |
| 7/31/2026, 12:00:00 AM | 98.8% |
| 7/30/2026, 11:00:00 PM | 98.8% |
| 7/30/2026, 10:00:00 PM | 98.8% |
| 7/30/2026, 9:00:00 PM | 98.7% |
| 7/30/2026, 8:00:00 PM | 98.7% |
| 7/30/2026, 7:00:00 PM | 98.7% |
| 7/30/2026, 6:45:00 PM | 98.7% |
| 7/30/2026, 6:00:00 PM | 98.7% |
| 7/30/2026, 5:00:00 PM | 98.3% |
| 7/30/2026, 4:00:00 PM | 98.4% |
| 7/30/2026, 3:00:00 PM | 96.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 2:00:00 PM | 77.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 1:00:00 PM | 76.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 12:00:00 PM | 76.5% |
Market Snapshot
Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.
1h Change
+0.1 pp
7d Change
Insufficient 7d price history
24h Volume
$47.7K
Volume vs Baseline
2.1x baseline
Liquidity
$35.2K
Market Significance
High (71)
Market Status
Open · Resolves in 57 days
End Date
Sep 30, 2026
Attention Score
61
Signal Quality Breakdown
Components behind the hero Signal Score of 63/100.
Probability Momentum
Strength of recent probability movement 74
Volume Activity
Trading activity versus the recent baseline 45
Liquidity Quality
Depth available to absorb orders without large price impact 83
Persistence
Whether the move holds across more than one lookback window 40
Data Confidence
Independent quality score for history coverage and data reliability High (81)