Will Russia capture Havrylivka by September 30, 2026?
Will Russia capture Havrylivka by...?
Current Probability
4.9%
24h Change
-2.0 pp
Signal Score
17/100
Data Confidence
Medium (68)
24h probability fell 2.0pp
Why This Signal Matters
Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.
- Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
- Low liquidity ($3,361)
- Medium data confidence (68)
Probability History
Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.
Current
4.9%
24h Change
-2.0 pp
7d Change
Insufficient 7d price history
Coverage
7d of stored history
View history table
| Time | Probability |
|---|---|
| 7/30/2026, 6:45:00 PM | 4.9% |
| 7/30/2026, 6:00:00 PM | 4.9% |
| 7/30/2026, 5:00:00 PM | 4.9% |
| 7/30/2026, 4:00:00 PM | 4.9% |
| 7/30/2026, 3:00:00 PM | 5.0% |
| 7/30/2026, 2:00:00 PM | 4.8% |
| 7/30/2026, 1:15:00 PM | 4.8% |
| 7/30/2026, 1:00:00 PM | 4.9% |
| 7/30/2026, 12:00:00 PM | 5.0% |
| 7/30/2026, 11:00:00 AM | 5.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 10:00:00 AM | 4.9% |
| 7/30/2026, 9:00:00 AM | 4.9% |
| 7/30/2026, 8:00:00 AM | 4.9% |
| 7/30/2026, 7:00:00 AM | 4.9% |
| 7/30/2026, 6:00:00 AM | 4.8% |
| 7/30/2026, 5:00:00 AM | 4.6% |
| 7/30/2026, 4:00:00 AM | 4.6% |
| 7/30/2026, 3:00:00 AM | 4.6% |
| 7/30/2026, 2:00:00 AM | 4.6% |
| 7/30/2026, 1:00:00 AM | 4.6% |
| 7/30/2026, 12:00:00 AM | 4.6% |
| 7/29/2026, 11:00:00 PM | 4.6% |
| 7/29/2026, 10:00:00 PM | 4.7% |
| 7/29/2026, 9:00:00 PM | 4.7% |
Market Snapshot
Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.
1h Change
Unchanged
7d Change
Insufficient 7d price history
24h Volume
$67.1K
Volume vs Baseline
Baseline unavailable
Liquidity
$3.4K
Market Significance
Moderate (66)
Market Status
Open · Resolves in 57 days
End Date
Sep 30, 2026
Attention Score
17
Signal Quality Breakdown
Components behind the hero Signal Score of 17/100.
Probability Momentum
Strength of recent probability movement 7
Volume Activity
Trading activity versus the recent baseline 0
Liquidity Quality
Depth available to absorb orders without large price impact 76
Persistence
Whether the move holds across more than one lookback window 20
Data Confidence
Independent quality score for history coverage and data reliability Medium (68)