Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?

Open · Resolves in 27 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

18.0%

24h Change

-5.0 pp

Signal Score

55/100

Data Confidence

High (84)

24h probability fell 5.0pp; volume is 10.6x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 2 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-04 23:39 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 5.0pp
24h volume is 10.6x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $24,389

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

18.0%

24h Change

-5.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

166 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 4, 11:30 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/4/2026, 11:30:00 PM	18.0%
8/4/2026, 11:00:00 PM	23.0%
8/4/2026, 10:00:00 PM	20.0%
8/4/2026, 9:00:00 PM	18.0%
8/4/2026, 8:00:00 PM	19.5%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 PM	24.0%
8/4/2026, 6:15:00 PM	24.5%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 PM	26.5%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 PM	26.0%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 PM	25.0%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 PM	25.0%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 PM	25.5%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 PM	20.5%
8/4/2026, 12:00:00 PM	21.5%
8/4/2026, 11:00:00 AM	20.5%
8/4/2026, 10:00:00 AM	20.5%
8/4/2026, 9:00:00 AM	20.5%
8/4/2026, 8:00:00 AM	21.0%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 AM	21.5%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 AM	21.5%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 AM	21.5%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 AM	23.0%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 AM	23.0%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 AM	23.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-2.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$111.0K

Volume vs Baseline

10.6x baseline

Liquidity

$24.4K

Market Significance

High (71)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 27 days

End Date

Aug 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 55/100.

Probability Momentum 17

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 86

Persistence 64

Data Confidence High (84)

Next Steps

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