Iran full airspace closure by August 31?

Iran full airspace closure by...?

Open · Resolves in 28 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

20.5%

24h Change

-22.5 pp

Signal Score

61/100

Data Confidence

High (79)

24h probability fell 22.5pp; volume is 2.1x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 1 day ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-02 20:16 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 22.5pp
24h volume is 2.1x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $25,031

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

20.5%

24h Change

-22.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

124 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 2, 08:15 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/2/2026, 8:15:00 PM	20.5%
8/2/2026, 8:00:00 PM	20.5%
8/2/2026, 7:00:00 PM	20.5%
8/2/2026, 6:00:00 PM	21.5%
8/2/2026, 5:00:00 PM	21.5%
8/2/2026, 4:00:00 PM	21.5%
8/2/2026, 3:45:00 PM	21.0%
8/2/2026, 3:00:00 PM	20.5%
8/2/2026, 2:00:00 PM	19.5%
8/2/2026, 1:00:00 PM	19.5%
8/2/2026, 12:00:00 PM	19.5%
8/2/2026, 11:45:00 AM	19.5%
8/2/2026, 11:00:00 AM	19.0%
8/2/2026, 10:00:00 AM	20.0%
8/2/2026, 9:00:00 AM	19.5%
8/2/2026, 8:00:00 AM	20.0%
8/2/2026, 7:30:00 AM	20.0%
8/2/2026, 7:00:00 AM	20.0%
8/2/2026, 6:00:00 AM	20.0%
8/2/2026, 5:00:00 AM	23.5%
8/2/2026, 4:00:00 AM	21.5%
8/2/2026, 3:00:00 AM	25.0%
8/2/2026, 2:00:00 AM	30.5%
8/2/2026, 1:00:00 AM	30.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$63.4K

Volume vs Baseline

2.1x baseline

Liquidity

$25.0K

Market Significance

Moderate (70)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 28 days

End Date

Aug 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 61/100.

Probability Momentum 75

Volume Activity 46

Liquidity Quality 83

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (79)

Next Steps

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