US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

Open · Resolves in 58 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

11.0%

24h Change

-2.5 pp

Signal Score

34/100

Data Confidence

High (83)

24h probability fell 2.5pp; volume is 1.8x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 5 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-07-30 07:42 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 2.5pp
24h volume is 1.8x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $190,604

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

11.0%

24h Change

-2.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

30 stored snapshots · Latest sample Jul 30, 07:30 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
7/30/2026, 7:30:00 AM	11.0%
7/30/2026, 7:00:00 AM	11.5%
7/30/2026, 6:00:00 AM	11.5%
7/30/2026, 5:00:00 AM	11.0%
7/30/2026, 4:00:00 AM	11.5%
7/30/2026, 3:00:00 AM	11.0%
7/30/2026, 2:00:00 AM	11.0%
7/30/2026, 1:00:00 AM	10.5%
7/30/2026, 12:00:00 AM	10.5%
7/29/2026, 11:00:00 PM	10.5%
7/29/2026, 10:00:00 PM	10.5%
7/29/2026, 9:00:00 PM	10.5%
7/29/2026, 8:00:00 PM	10.5%
7/29/2026, 7:00:00 PM	10.5%
7/29/2026, 2:00:00 PM	12.5%
7/29/2026, 1:00:00 PM	12.5%
7/29/2026, 11:00:00 AM	12.5%
7/29/2026, 10:00:00 AM	12.5%
7/29/2026, 9:00:00 AM	12.5%
7/29/2026, 8:00:00 AM	12.5%
7/29/2026, 4:00:00 AM	13.5%
7/29/2026, 1:00:00 AM	13.5%
7/28/2026, 8:00:00 PM	14.0%
7/28/2026, 7:00:00 PM	13.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-0.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$35.5K

Volume vs Baseline

1.8x baseline

Liquidity

$190.6K

Market Significance

High (73)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 58 days

End Date

Sep 30, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 34/100.

Probability Momentum 8

Volume Activity 38

Liquidity Quality 86

Persistence 52

Data Confidence High (83)

Next Steps

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