US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

Open · Resolves in 58 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

33.5%

24h Change

+5.0 pp

Signal Score

48/100

Data Confidence

High (80)

24h probability rose 5.0pp; volume is 5.2x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 1 day ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-02 15:48 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 5.0pp
24h volume is 5.2x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $200,910

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

33.5%

24h Change

+5.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

119 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 2, 03:45 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/2/2026, 3:45:00 PM	33.5%
8/2/2026, 3:00:00 PM	33.5%
8/2/2026, 2:00:00 PM	34.0%
8/2/2026, 1:00:00 PM	34.5%
8/2/2026, 12:00:00 PM	35.0%
8/2/2026, 11:45:00 AM	35.5%
8/2/2026, 11:00:00 AM	35.5%
8/2/2026, 10:00:00 AM	35.5%
8/2/2026, 9:00:00 AM	35.5%
8/2/2026, 8:00:00 AM	35.0%
8/2/2026, 7:30:00 AM	34.5%
8/2/2026, 7:00:00 AM	35.0%
8/2/2026, 6:00:00 AM	35.0%
8/2/2026, 5:00:00 AM	34.5%
8/2/2026, 4:00:00 AM	34.0%
8/2/2026, 3:00:00 AM	31.5%
8/2/2026, 2:00:00 AM	26.5%
8/2/2026, 1:00:00 AM	26.5%
8/2/2026, 12:00:00 AM	26.0%
8/1/2026, 11:00:00 PM	26.0%
8/1/2026, 10:00:00 PM	26.5%
8/1/2026, 9:00:00 PM	25.5%
8/1/2026, 8:00:00 PM	25.5%
8/1/2026, 7:00:00 PM	28.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-0.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$118.7K

Volume vs Baseline

5.2x baseline

Liquidity

$200.9K

Market Significance

High (76)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 58 days

End Date

Sep 30, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 48/100.

Probability Momentum 17

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 91

Persistence 10

Data Confidence High (80)

Next Steps

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