US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?

Open · Resolves in 54 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

5.8%

24h Change

+2.9 pp

Signal Score

18/100

Data Confidence

Medium (69)

24h probability rose 2.9pp

Market data

Updated 2 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-08 08:07 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $32,487
Medium data confidence (69)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

5.8%

24h Change

+2.9 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

167 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 8, 08:00 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/8/2026, 8:00:00 AM	5.8%
8/8/2026, 7:00:00 AM	6.5%
8/8/2026, 6:00:00 AM	6.7%
8/8/2026, 5:00:00 AM	7.0%
8/8/2026, 4:15:00 AM	6.9%
8/8/2026, 4:00:00 AM	7.0%
8/8/2026, 3:00:00 AM	7.1%
8/8/2026, 2:00:00 AM	7.6%
8/8/2026, 1:00:00 AM	7.1%
8/8/2026, 12:00:00 AM	7.5%
8/7/2026, 11:00:00 PM	7.3%
8/7/2026, 10:00:00 PM	7.1%
8/7/2026, 9:00:00 PM	7.1%
8/7/2026, 8:00:00 PM	11.7%
8/7/2026, 7:00:00 PM	3.5%
8/7/2026, 6:00:00 PM	3.5%
8/7/2026, 5:00:00 PM	3.5%
8/7/2026, 4:00:00 PM	3.5%
8/7/2026, 3:00:00 PM	3.6%
8/7/2026, 2:00:00 PM	3.6%
8/7/2026, 1:00:00 PM	2.9%
8/7/2026, 12:00:00 PM	2.9%
8/7/2026, 11:00:00 AM	2.9%
8/7/2026, 10:00:00 AM	2.9%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-0.6 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$72.0K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$32.5K

Market Significance

High (72)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 54 days

End Date

Sep 30, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 18/100.

Probability Momentum 10

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 85

Persistence 10

Data Confidence Medium (69)

Next Steps

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