0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?

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Current Probability

94.7%

24h Change

+92.7 pp

Signal Score

84/100

Data Confidence

High (79)

24h probability rose 92.7pp; volume is 22.8x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 8 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-04 18:15 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 92.7pp
24h volume is 22.8x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $15,266

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

94.7%

24h Change

+92.7 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

161 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 4, 06:15 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/4/2026, 6:15:00 PM	94.7%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 PM	95.5%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 PM	95.0%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 PM	93.8%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 PM	0.5%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 PM	0.5%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 PM	1.3%
8/4/2026, 12:00:00 PM	1.9%
8/4/2026, 11:00:00 AM	1.7%
8/4/2026, 10:00:00 AM	1.7%
8/4/2026, 9:00:00 AM	1.7%
8/4/2026, 8:00:00 AM	1.7%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 AM	1.7%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 AM	1.7%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 AM	1.7%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 AM	1.7%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 AM	1.7%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 AM	1.7%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 AM	1.7%
8/4/2026, 12:00:00 AM	1.7%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 PM	1.9%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 PM	1.9%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 PM	1.9%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 PM	1.9%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-0.4 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$122.7K

Volume vs Baseline

22.8x baseline

Liquidity

$15.3K

Market Significance

High (76)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Jul 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 84/100.

Probability Momentum 100

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 84

Persistence 10

Data Confidence High (79)

Next Steps

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