Iran leadership change by September 30?

Open · Resolves in 11 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

1.5%

24h Change

-0.1 pp

Signal Score

42/100

Data Confidence

High (81)

volume is 25.3x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 1 day ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-19 20:19 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability was effectively unchanged
24h volume is 25.3x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $124,258

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

1.5%

24h Change

-0.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

145 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 19, 08:15 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/19/2026, 8:15:00 PM	1.5%
9/19/2026, 8:00:00 PM	1.5%
9/19/2026, 7:00:00 PM	1.5%
9/19/2026, 6:00:00 PM	1.5%
9/19/2026, 5:00:00 PM	1.5%
9/19/2026, 4:00:00 PM	1.3%
9/19/2026, 3:00:00 PM	1.4%
9/19/2026, 2:00:00 PM	1.4%
9/19/2026, 1:00:00 PM	1.4%
9/19/2026, 12:15:00 PM	1.4%
9/19/2026, 12:00:00 PM	1.4%
9/19/2026, 11:00:00 AM	1.5%
9/19/2026, 10:00:00 AM	1.5%
9/19/2026, 9:00:00 AM	1.5%
9/19/2026, 8:00:00 AM	1.1%
9/19/2026, 7:00:00 AM	1.1%
9/19/2026, 6:00:00 AM	1.1%
9/19/2026, 5:00:00 AM	1.1%
9/19/2026, 4:00:00 AM	1.1%
9/19/2026, 3:00:00 AM	1.1%
9/19/2026, 2:00:00 AM	1.5%
9/19/2026, 1:00:00 AM	1.5%
9/19/2026, 12:00:00 AM	1.5%
9/18/2026, 11:00:00 PM	1.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$348.7K

Volume vs Baseline

25.3x baseline

Liquidity

$124.3K

Market Significance

High (77)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 11 days

End Date

Oct 1, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 42/100.

Probability Momentum 0

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 95

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (81)

Next Steps

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