Iran leadership change by September 30?

Iran leadership change by...?

Open · Resolves in 57 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

6.5%

24h Change

-4.5 pp

Signal Score

53/100

Data Confidence

High (84)

24h probability fell 4.5pp; volume is 6.1x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 2 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-02 07:40 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 4.5pp
24h volume is 6.1x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $84,568

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

6.5%

24h Change

-4.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

117 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 2, 07:30 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/2/2026, 7:30:00 AM	6.5%
8/2/2026, 7:00:00 AM	6.5%
8/2/2026, 6:00:00 AM	7.5%
8/2/2026, 5:00:00 AM	8.0%
8/2/2026, 4:00:00 AM	8.0%
8/2/2026, 3:00:00 AM	9.0%
8/2/2026, 2:00:00 AM	8.5%
8/2/2026, 1:00:00 AM	9.0%
8/2/2026, 12:00:00 AM	9.0%
8/1/2026, 11:00:00 PM	9.5%
8/1/2026, 10:00:00 PM	9.5%
8/1/2026, 9:00:00 PM	11.5%
8/1/2026, 8:00:00 PM	11.5%
8/1/2026, 7:00:00 PM	10.5%
8/1/2026, 6:00:00 PM	10.5%
8/1/2026, 5:00:00 PM	10.5%
8/1/2026, 4:00:00 PM	10.5%
8/1/2026, 3:00:00 PM	10.5%
8/1/2026, 2:00:00 PM	10.5%
8/1/2026, 1:00:00 PM	10.5%
8/1/2026, 12:00:00 PM	10.5%
8/1/2026, 11:00:00 AM	10.5%
8/1/2026, 10:00:00 AM	10.5%
8/1/2026, 9:00:00 AM	11.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-1.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$84.5K

Volume vs Baseline

6.1x baseline

Liquidity

$84.6K

Market Significance

High (75)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 57 days

End Date

Sep 30, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 53/100.

Probability Momentum 15

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 89

Persistence 53

Data Confidence High (84)

Next Steps

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