Iran leadership change by July 31?

Iran leadership change by...?

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Current Probability

0.4%

24h Change

+0.1 pp

Signal Score

31/100

Data Confidence

High (85)

24h probability rose 0.1pp; volume is 1.7x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 3 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-07-31 21:48 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 0.1pp
24h volume is 1.7x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $74,006

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.4%

24h Change

+0.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

84 stored snapshots · Latest sample Jul 31, 09:45 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
7/31/2026, 9:45:00 PM	0.4%
7/31/2026, 9:00:00 PM	0.1%
7/31/2026, 8:00:00 PM	0.2%
7/31/2026, 7:00:00 PM	0.1%
7/31/2026, 6:00:00 PM	0.1%
7/31/2026, 5:00:00 PM	0.1%
7/31/2026, 4:00:00 PM	0.1%
7/31/2026, 3:00:00 PM	0.1%
7/31/2026, 2:00:00 PM	0.1%
7/31/2026, 1:00:00 PM	0.1%
7/31/2026, 12:00:00 PM	0.1%
7/31/2026, 11:00:00 AM	0.1%
7/31/2026, 10:00:00 AM	0.1%
7/31/2026, 9:00:00 AM	0.1%
7/31/2026, 8:00:00 AM	0.1%
7/31/2026, 7:00:00 AM	0.1%
7/31/2026, 6:00:00 AM	0.3%
7/31/2026, 5:00:00 AM	0.3%
7/31/2026, 4:00:00 AM	0.3%
7/31/2026, 3:00:00 AM	0.3%
7/31/2026, 2:00:00 AM	0.3%
7/31/2026, 1:00:00 AM	0.3%
7/31/2026, 12:00:00 AM	0.4%
7/30/2026, 11:00:00 PM	0.4%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+0.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$138.7K

Volume vs Baseline

1.7x baseline

Liquidity

$74.0K

Market Significance

High (81)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Jul 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 31/100.

Probability Momentum 0

Volume Activity 31

Liquidity Quality 90

Persistence 60

Data Confidence High (85)

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