Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?

Open · Resolves in 7 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

0.4%

24h Change

+0.1 pp

Signal Score

31/100

Data Confidence

High (79)

volume is 2.8x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 4 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-20 04:44 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability was effectively unchanged
24h volume is 2.8x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $221,341

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.4%

24h Change

+0.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

60 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 20, 04:30 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/20/2026, 4:30:00 AM	0.4%
9/20/2026, 4:00:00 AM	0.5%
9/20/2026, 3:00:00 AM	0.5%
9/20/2026, 2:00:00 AM	0.5%
9/20/2026, 1:00:00 AM	0.5%
9/20/2026, 12:00:00 AM	0.5%
9/19/2026, 11:00:00 PM	0.4%
9/19/2026, 10:00:00 PM	0.4%
9/19/2026, 9:00:00 PM	0.4%
9/19/2026, 8:00:00 PM	0.4%
9/19/2026, 7:00:00 PM	0.4%
9/19/2026, 6:00:00 PM	0.4%
9/19/2026, 5:00:00 PM	0.4%
9/19/2026, 4:00:00 PM	0.4%
9/19/2026, 3:00:00 PM	0.4%
9/19/2026, 2:00:00 PM	0.4%
9/19/2026, 1:00:00 PM	0.4%
9/19/2026, 12:00:00 PM	0.4%
9/19/2026, 11:00:00 AM	0.4%
9/19/2026, 10:00:00 AM	0.4%
9/19/2026, 9:00:00 AM	0.4%
9/19/2026, 8:00:00 AM	0.4%
9/19/2026, 7:00:00 AM	0.4%
9/19/2026, 6:00:00 AM	0.4%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-0.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$89.8K

Volume vs Baseline

2.8x baseline

Liquidity

$221.3K

Market Significance

High (73)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 7 days

End Date

Oct 1, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 31/100.

Probability Momentum 0

Volume Activity 65

Liquidity Quality 90

Persistence 10

Data Confidence High (79)

Next Steps

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