Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?

Open · Resolves in 57 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

2.4%

24h Change

-0.8 pp

Signal Score

35/100

Data Confidence

High (83)

24h probability fell 0.8pp; volume is 2.4x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 1 day ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-03 07:36 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 0.8pp
24h volume is 2.4x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $199,914

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

2.4%

24h Change

-0.8 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

127 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 3, 07:30 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/3/2026, 7:30:00 AM	2.4%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 AM	2.4%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 AM	2.5%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 AM	2.4%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 AM	2.1%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 AM	2.7%
8/3/2026, 2:00:00 AM	2.7%
8/3/2026, 1:00:00 AM	2.6%
8/3/2026, 12:00:00 AM	2.6%
8/2/2026, 11:00:00 PM	2.6%
8/2/2026, 10:00:00 PM	2.6%
8/2/2026, 9:00:00 PM	2.8%
8/2/2026, 8:00:00 PM	2.8%
8/2/2026, 7:00:00 PM	2.8%
8/2/2026, 6:00:00 PM	2.5%
8/2/2026, 5:00:00 PM	2.5%
8/2/2026, 4:00:00 PM	2.5%
8/2/2026, 3:00:00 PM	2.5%
8/2/2026, 2:00:00 PM	2.5%
8/2/2026, 1:00:00 PM	2.8%
8/2/2026, 12:00:00 PM	2.8%
8/2/2026, 11:00:00 AM	2.9%
8/2/2026, 10:00:00 AM	3.0%
8/2/2026, 9:00:00 AM	3.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-0.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$61.7K

Volume vs Baseline

2.4x baseline

Liquidity

$199.9K

Market Significance

High (74)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 57 days

End Date

Sep 30, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 35/100.

Probability Momentum 3

Volume Activity 54

Liquidity Quality 88

Persistence 44

Data Confidence High (83)

Next Steps

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