Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

Open · Resolves in 150 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

64.5%

24h Change

+3.5 pp

Signal Score

27/100

Data Confidence

High (84)

24h probability rose 3.5pp; volume is 0.6x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 2 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-02 07:40 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 3.5pp
24h volume is 0.6x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $71,034

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

64.5%

24h Change

+3.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

121 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 2, 07:30 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/2/2026, 7:30:00 AM	64.5%
8/2/2026, 7:00:00 AM	63.5%
8/2/2026, 6:00:00 AM	63.5%
8/2/2026, 5:00:00 AM	66.5%
8/2/2026, 4:00:00 AM	67.0%
8/2/2026, 3:00:00 AM	66.5%
8/2/2026, 2:00:00 AM	66.0%
8/2/2026, 1:00:00 AM	66.0%
8/2/2026, 12:00:00 AM	61.5%
8/1/2026, 11:00:00 PM	62.5%
8/1/2026, 10:00:00 PM	63.5%
8/1/2026, 9:00:00 PM	61.5%
8/1/2026, 8:00:00 PM	62.0%
8/1/2026, 7:00:00 PM	64.5%
8/1/2026, 6:00:00 PM	66.0%
8/1/2026, 5:00:00 PM	67.0%
8/1/2026, 4:00:00 PM	66.5%
8/1/2026, 3:30:00 PM	67.5%
8/1/2026, 3:00:00 PM	67.5%
8/1/2026, 2:00:00 PM	68.0%
8/1/2026, 1:00:00 PM	68.5%
8/1/2026, 12:00:00 PM	67.5%
8/1/2026, 11:45:00 AM	67.5%
8/1/2026, 11:00:00 AM	69.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+1.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$86.5K

Volume vs Baseline

0.6x baseline

Liquidity

$71.0K

Market Significance

High (78)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 150 days

End Date

Dec 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 27/100.

Probability Momentum 12

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 88

Persistence 57

Data Confidence High (84)

Next Steps

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