Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
Current Probability
27.5%
24h Change
-11.0 pp
Signal Score
49/100
Data Confidence
High (80)
24h probability fell 11.0pp; volume is 2.8x the prior 6-day daily average
Why This Signal Matters
Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.
- 24h probability fell 11.0pp
- 24h volume is 2.8x the prior 6-day daily average
- Liquidity depth $80,675
Probability History
Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.
Not enough history to chart yet (7d of stored history, 0 point s). Charts fill in after sync backfills CLOB history.
Browse other marketsCurrent
27.5%
24h Change
-11.0 pp
7d Change
Insufficient 7d price history
Coverage
7d of stored history
Market Snapshot
Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.
1h Change
Unchanged
7d Change
Insufficient 7d price history
24h Volume
$79.3K
Volume vs Baseline
2.8x baseline
Liquidity
$80.7K
Market Significance
High (78)
Market Status
Open · Resolves in 98 days
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Attention Score
60
Signal Quality Breakdown
Components behind the hero Signal Score of 49/100.