NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by December 31, 2026?

Open · Resolves in 146 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

8.0%

24h Change

Unchanged

Signal Score

15/100

Data Confidence

Medium (69)

Signal passed quality checks

Market data

Updated 10 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-07 23:50 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability was effectively unchanged
Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $18,937

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

8.0%

24h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

161 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 7, 11:45 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/7/2026, 11:45:00 PM	8.0%
8/7/2026, 11:00:00 PM	8.0%
8/7/2026, 10:00:00 PM	8.0%
8/7/2026, 9:00:00 PM	8.0%
8/7/2026, 8:00:00 PM	8.0%
8/7/2026, 7:00:00 PM	8.0%
8/7/2026, 6:00:00 PM	8.0%
8/7/2026, 5:00:00 PM	8.0%
8/7/2026, 4:30:00 PM	8.0%
8/7/2026, 4:00:00 PM	8.0%
8/7/2026, 3:00:00 PM	8.0%
8/7/2026, 2:00:00 PM	8.0%
8/7/2026, 1:00:00 PM	8.0%
8/7/2026, 12:30:00 PM	8.0%
8/7/2026, 12:00:00 PM	8.0%
8/7/2026, 11:00:00 AM	8.0%
8/7/2026, 10:00:00 AM	8.0%
8/7/2026, 9:30:00 AM	8.0%
8/7/2026, 9:00:00 AM	8.0%
8/7/2026, 8:00:00 AM	8.0%
8/7/2026, 7:00:00 AM	8.0%
8/7/2026, 6:00:00 AM	8.5%
8/7/2026, 5:00:00 AM	8.0%
8/7/2026, 4:00:00 AM	7.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$60.1K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$18.9K

Market Significance

High (74)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 146 days

End Date

Dec 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 15/100.

Probability Momentum 0

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 82

Persistence 20

Data Confidence Medium (69)

Next Steps

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