Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?
Current Probability
0.9%
24h Change
-4.0 pp
Signal Score
49/100
Data Confidence
High (81)
24h probability fell 4.0pp; volume is 12.5x the prior 6-day daily average
Why This Signal Matters
Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.
- 24h probability fell 4.0pp
- 24h volume is 12.5x the prior 6-day daily average
- Liquidity depth $15,689
Probability History
Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.
Current
0.9%
24h Change
-4.0 pp
7d Change
Insufficient 7d price history
Coverage
7d of stored history
View history table
| Time | Probability |
|---|---|
| 7/30/2026, 7:30:00 AM | 0.9% |
| 7/30/2026, 7:00:00 AM | 1.1% |
| 7/30/2026, 6:00:00 AM | 1.1% |
| 7/30/2026, 5:00:00 AM | 0.9% |
| 7/30/2026, 4:00:00 AM | 0.8% |
| 7/30/2026, 3:00:00 AM | 0.7% |
| 7/30/2026, 2:00:00 AM | 0.7% |
| 7/30/2026, 1:00:00 AM | 0.6% |
| 7/30/2026, 12:00:00 AM | 0.7% |
| 7/29/2026, 11:00:00 PM | 0.7% |
| 7/29/2026, 10:00:00 PM | 0.7% |
| 7/29/2026, 9:00:00 PM | 2.1% |
| 7/29/2026, 8:00:00 PM | 2.9% |
| 7/29/2026, 7:00:00 PM | 2.9% |
| 7/29/2026, 5:00:00 PM | 2.8% |
| 7/29/2026, 2:00:00 PM | 4.2% |
| 7/29/2026, 1:00:00 PM | 4.2% |
| 7/29/2026, 12:00:00 PM | 4.3% |
| 7/29/2026, 11:00:00 AM | 4.3% |
| 7/29/2026, 10:00:00 AM | 4.0% |
| 7/29/2026, 9:00:00 AM | 4.0% |
| 7/29/2026, 8:00:00 AM | 4.0% |
| 7/29/2026, 4:00:00 AM | 5.0% |
| 7/29/2026, 3:00:00 AM | 9.6% |
Market Snapshot
Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.
1h Change
-0.1 pp
7d Change
Insufficient 7d price history
24h Volume
$22.7K
Volume vs Baseline
12.5x baseline
Liquidity
$15.7K
Market Significance
Moderate (65)
Market Status
Closed
End Date
Jul 31, 2026
Attention Score
69
Signal Quality Breakdown
Components behind the hero Signal Score of 49/100.