Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?

Open · Resolves in 144 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

40.0%

24h Change

+14.5 pp

Signal Score

74/100

Data Confidence

High (87)

24h probability rose 14.5pp; volume is 16.8x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 1 hour ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-09 12:59 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 14.5pp
24h volume is 16.8x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $29,146

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

40.0%

24h Change

+14.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

167 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 9, 12:45 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/9/2026, 12:45:00 PM	40.0%
8/9/2026, 12:00:00 PM	47.5%
8/9/2026, 11:00:00 AM	24.5%
8/9/2026, 10:00:00 AM	24.5%
8/9/2026, 9:00:00 AM	24.5%
8/9/2026, 8:00:00 AM	24.5%
8/9/2026, 7:00:00 AM	24.5%
8/9/2026, 6:00:00 AM	24.5%
8/9/2026, 5:00:00 AM	24.5%
8/9/2026, 4:00:00 AM	25.5%
8/9/2026, 3:00:00 AM	25.5%
8/9/2026, 2:00:00 AM	25.5%
8/9/2026, 1:00:00 AM	25.5%
8/9/2026, 12:00:00 AM	24.5%
8/8/2026, 11:00:00 PM	24.5%
8/8/2026, 10:00:00 PM	24.5%
8/8/2026, 9:00:00 PM	25.0%
8/8/2026, 8:00:00 PM	25.5%
8/8/2026, 7:00:00 PM	25.5%
8/8/2026, 6:00:00 PM	25.5%
8/8/2026, 5:00:00 PM	25.5%
8/8/2026, 4:00:00 PM	25.5%
8/8/2026, 3:00:00 PM	25.5%
8/8/2026, 2:00:00 PM	25.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+15.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$96.7K

Volume vs Baseline

16.8x baseline

Liquidity

$29.1K

Market Significance

High (76)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 144 days

End Date

Dec 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 74/100.

Probability Momentum 48

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 86

Persistence 96

Data Confidence High (87)

Next Steps

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