Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by July 31?

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?

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Current Probability

6.2%

24h Change

+3.4 pp

Signal Score

44/100

Data Confidence

High (78)

24h probability rose 3.4pp; volume is 96.9x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 3 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-07-31 17:12 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 3.4pp
24h volume is 96.9x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $17,069

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

6.2%

24h Change

+3.4 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

78 stored snapshots · Latest sample Jul 31, 05:00 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
7/31/2026, 5:00:00 PM	6.2%
7/31/2026, 4:00:00 PM	6.3%
7/31/2026, 3:00:00 PM	6.3%
7/31/2026, 2:00:00 PM	6.3%
7/31/2026, 1:00:00 PM	9.7%
7/31/2026, 12:00:00 PM	5.3%
7/31/2026, 11:00:00 AM	8.3%
7/31/2026, 10:00:00 AM	11.5%
7/31/2026, 9:00:00 AM	8.5%
7/31/2026, 8:00:00 AM	22.4%
7/31/2026, 7:00:00 AM	13.9%
7/31/2026, 6:00:00 AM	13.7%
7/31/2026, 5:00:00 AM	15.0%
7/31/2026, 4:00:00 AM	27.5%
7/31/2026, 3:00:00 AM	34.4%
7/31/2026, 2:00:00 AM	37.1%
7/31/2026, 1:00:00 AM	36.0%
7/31/2026, 12:00:00 AM	48.6%
7/30/2026, 11:00:00 PM	40.1%
7/30/2026, 10:00:00 PM	6.4%
7/30/2026, 9:00:00 PM	7.3%
7/30/2026, 8:00:00 PM	2.6%
7/30/2026, 7:00:00 PM	2.6%
7/30/2026, 6:00:00 PM	2.8%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-0.2 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$48.5K

Volume vs Baseline

96.9x baseline

Liquidity

$17.1K

Market Significance

High (74)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Jul 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 44/100.

Probability Momentum 11

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 81

Persistence 10

Data Confidence High (78)

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