Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?

Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?

Open · Resolves in 12 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

2.5%

24h Change

-0.1 pp

Signal Score

23/100

Data Confidence

High (79)

volume is 1.7x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 1 day ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-03 09:27 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability was effectively unchanged
24h volume is 1.7x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $95,630

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

2.5%

24h Change

-0.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

148 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 3, 09:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/3/2026, 9:15:00 AM	2.5%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 AM	2.5%
8/3/2026, 8:45:00 AM	2.5%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 AM	2.4%
8/3/2026, 7:30:00 AM	2.4%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 AM	2.4%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 AM	2.4%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 AM	2.4%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 AM	2.4%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 AM	2.4%
8/3/2026, 2:00:00 AM	2.4%
8/3/2026, 1:00:00 AM	2.5%
8/3/2026, 12:00:00 AM	2.5%
8/2/2026, 11:00:00 PM	2.5%
8/2/2026, 10:00:00 PM	2.6%
8/2/2026, 9:00:00 PM	2.3%
8/2/2026, 8:00:00 PM	2.1%
8/2/2026, 7:00:00 PM	2.1%
8/2/2026, 6:00:00 PM	2.1%
8/2/2026, 5:00:00 PM	2.2%
8/2/2026, 4:00:00 PM	2.3%
8/2/2026, 3:00:00 PM	2.1%
8/2/2026, 2:00:00 PM	2.4%
8/2/2026, 1:00:00 PM	2.4%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+0.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$56.8K

Volume vs Baseline

1.7x baseline

Liquidity

$95.6K

Market Significance

High (72)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 12 days

End Date

Aug 15, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 23/100.

Probability Momentum 0

Volume Activity 33

Liquidity Quality 87

Persistence 10

Data Confidence High (79)

Next Steps

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