Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?
Current Probability
2.3%
24h Change
-0.1 pp
Signal Score
31/100
Data Confidence
High (79)
24h probability fell 0.1pp; volume is 2.7x the prior 6-day daily average
Why This Signal Matters
Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.
- 24h probability fell 0.1pp
- 24h volume is 2.7x the prior 6-day daily average
- Liquidity depth $37,778
Probability History
Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.
Current
2.3%
24h Change
-0.1 pp
7d Change
Insufficient 7d price history
Coverage
7d of stored history
View history table
| Time | Probability |
|---|---|
| 7/30/2026, 1:15:00 PM | 2.3% |
| 7/30/2026, 1:00:00 PM | 2.3% |
| 7/30/2026, 12:00:00 PM | 2.3% |
| 7/30/2026, 11:00:00 AM | 1.3% |
| 7/30/2026, 10:00:00 AM | 1.3% |
| 7/30/2026, 9:00:00 AM | 1.3% |
| 7/30/2026, 8:00:00 AM | 1.3% |
| 7/30/2026, 7:30:00 AM | 1.3% |
| 7/30/2026, 7:00:00 AM | 1.3% |
| 7/30/2026, 6:00:00 AM | 1.9% |
| 7/30/2026, 5:00:00 AM | 2.3% |
| 7/30/2026, 4:00:00 AM | 2.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 3:00:00 AM | 1.8% |
| 7/30/2026, 2:00:00 AM | 1.7% |
| 7/30/2026, 1:00:00 AM | 1.7% |
| 7/30/2026, 12:00:00 AM | 1.7% |
| 7/29/2026, 11:00:00 PM | 1.7% |
| 7/29/2026, 10:00:00 PM | 1.7% |
| 7/29/2026, 9:00:00 PM | 2.1% |
| 7/29/2026, 8:00:00 PM | 2.1% |
| 7/29/2026, 7:00:00 PM | 2.3% |
| 7/29/2026, 6:00:00 PM | 2.8% |
| 7/29/2026, 5:00:00 PM | 3.0% |
| 7/29/2026, 4:00:00 PM | 2.4% |
Market Snapshot
Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.
1h Change
Unchanged
7d Change
Insufficient 7d price history
24h Volume
$28.0K
Volume vs Baseline
2.7x baseline
Liquidity
$37.8K
Market Significance
Moderate (67)
Market Status
Closed
End Date
Jul 31, 2026
Attention Score
47
Signal Quality Breakdown
Components behind the hero Signal Score of 31/100.