Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?

Open · Resolves in 10 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

98.7%

24h Change

+0.3 pp

Signal Score

24/100

Data Confidence

High (80)

24h probability rose 0.3pp; volume is 1.6x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 55 minutes ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-04 10:16 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 0.3pp
24h volume is 1.6x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $163,839

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

98.7%

24h Change

+0.3 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

183 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 4, 10:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/4/2026, 10:15:00 AM	98.7%
8/4/2026, 10:00:00 AM	98.7%
8/4/2026, 9:00:00 AM	98.7%
8/4/2026, 8:00:00 AM	98.7%
8/4/2026, 7:15:00 AM	98.7%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 AM	98.8%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 AM	98.8%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 AM	98.8%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 AM	98.8%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 AM	98.8%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 AM	98.8%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 AM	98.8%
8/4/2026, 12:00:00 AM	98.9%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 PM	98.8%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 PM	98.7%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 PM	98.6%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 PM	98.6%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 PM	98.5%
8/3/2026, 6:15:00 PM	98.5%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 PM	98.5%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 PM	98.5%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM	98.5%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 PM	98.5%
8/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM	98.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$71.4K

Volume vs Baseline

1.6x baseline

Liquidity

$163.8K

Market Significance

High (73)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 10 days

End Date

Aug 13, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 24/100.

Probability Momentum 1

Volume Activity 30

Liquidity Quality 89

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (80)

Next Steps

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