Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30?

Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?

Open · Resolves in 58 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

96.9%

24h Change

+8.4 pp

Signal Score

51/100

Data Confidence

High (78)

24h probability rose 8.4pp; volume is 14.9x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 4 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-07-30 13:18 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 8.4pp
24h volume is 14.9x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $30,578

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

96.9%

24h Change

+8.4 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

52 stored snapshots · Latest sample Jul 30, 01:15 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
7/30/2026, 1:15:00 PM	96.9%
7/30/2026, 1:00:00 PM	99.0%
7/30/2026, 12:00:00 PM	99.0%
7/30/2026, 11:00:00 AM	99.0%
7/30/2026, 10:00:00 AM	99.0%
7/30/2026, 9:00:00 AM	98.6%
7/30/2026, 8:00:00 AM	98.3%
7/30/2026, 7:30:00 AM	98.0%
7/30/2026, 7:00:00 AM	98.0%
7/30/2026, 6:00:00 AM	98.0%
7/30/2026, 5:00:00 AM	97.9%
7/30/2026, 4:00:00 AM	97.1%
7/30/2026, 3:00:00 AM	97.5%
7/30/2026, 2:00:00 AM	96.3%
7/30/2026, 1:00:00 AM	95.3%
7/30/2026, 12:00:00 AM	95.2%
7/29/2026, 11:00:00 PM	95.7%
7/29/2026, 10:00:00 PM	88.0%
7/29/2026, 9:00:00 PM	80.0%
7/29/2026, 8:00:00 PM	90.5%
7/29/2026, 7:00:00 PM	88.5%
7/29/2026, 6:00:00 PM	89.5%
7/29/2026, 5:00:00 PM	89.0%
7/29/2026, 4:00:00 PM	89.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-2.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$49.1K

Volume vs Baseline

14.9x baseline

Liquidity

$30.6K

Market Significance

High (71)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 58 days

End Date

Sep 30, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 51/100.

Probability Momentum 28

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 83

Persistence 10

Data Confidence High (78)

Next Steps

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