Will Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?

Open · Resolves in 284 days View on Polymarket ↗ (opens in a new tab)

Current Probability

100.0%

24h Change

+62.5 pp

Signal Score

87/100

Data Confidence

High (81)

24h probability rose 62.5pp; volume is 768.8x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 36 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-14 11:00 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

  • 24h probability rose 62.5pp
  • 24h volume is 768.8x the prior 6-day daily average
  • Liquidity depth $28,002

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

No samples yet

Not enough history to chart yet (7d of stored history, 0 point s). Charts fill in after sync backfills CLOB history.

Browse other markets

Current

100.0%

24h Change

+62.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

0 stored snapshots

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$563.1K

Volume vs Baseline

768.8x baseline

Liquidity

$28.0K

Market Significance

High (87)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 284 days

End Date

Jun 30, 2027

Attention Score

99

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 87/100.

Probability Momentum 100
Volume Activity 100
Liquidity Quality 93
Persistence 20
Data Confidence High (81)

Next Steps

Keep exploring radar picks or open the full market catalog.