Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?

Iran military action against a gulf state on...?

Closed View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

0.1%

24h Change

-0.5 pp

Signal Score

21/100

Data Confidence

High (82)

24h probability fell 0.5pp; volume is 1.0x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 6 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-07-29 08:04 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 0.5pp
24h volume is 1.0x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $73,068

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.1%

24h Change

-0.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

11 stored snapshots · Latest sample Jul 29, 08:00 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
7/29/2026, 8:00:00 AM	0.1%
7/29/2026, 4:00:00 AM	0.2%
7/29/2026, 1:00:00 AM	0.6%
7/28/2026, 8:00:00 PM	0.7%
7/28/2026, 7:00:00 PM	0.9%
7/28/2026, 6:00:00 PM	0.9%
7/28/2026, 5:00:00 PM	1.4%
7/28/2026, 4:00:00 PM	0.6%
7/28/2026, 3:00:00 PM	1.4%
7/28/2026, 2:00:00 PM	1.8%
7/28/2026, 1:00:00 PM	0.9%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-0.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$21.4K

Volume vs Baseline

1.0x baseline

Liquidity

$73.1K

Market Significance

High (76)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Jul 23, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 21/100.

Probability Momentum 2

Volume Activity 2

Liquidity Quality 82

Persistence 51

Data Confidence High (82)

Next Steps

Keep exploring radar picks or open the full market catalog.

Back to radar Browse all markets View on Polymarket ↗