Will GPT-6 be released by August 7, 2026?

Open · Resolves in 2 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

1.5%

24h Change

+1.1 pp

Signal Score

40/100

Data Confidence

High (78)

24h probability rose 1.1pp; volume is 20.8x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 8 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-04 18:15 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 1.1pp
24h volume is 20.8x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $12,922

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

1.5%

24h Change

+1.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

161 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 4, 06:15 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/4/2026, 6:15:00 PM	1.5%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 PM	1.5%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 PM	1.8%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 PM	1.9%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 PM	0.9%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 PM	0.9%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 PM	0.9%
8/4/2026, 12:00:00 PM	0.9%
8/4/2026, 11:00:00 AM	0.9%
8/4/2026, 10:00:00 AM	0.9%
8/4/2026, 9:00:00 AM	0.3%
8/4/2026, 8:00:00 AM	0.4%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 AM	2.5%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 AM	0.7%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 AM	0.7%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 AM	0.3%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 AM	0.3%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 AM	0.3%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 AM	0.3%
8/4/2026, 12:00:00 AM	0.3%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 PM	0.3%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 PM	0.3%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 PM	0.3%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 PM	0.3%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-0.3 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$46.8K

Volume vs Baseline

20.8x baseline

Liquidity

$12.9K

Market Significance

Moderate (66)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 2 days

End Date

Aug 7, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 40/100.

Probability Momentum 4

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 80

Persistence 10

Data Confidence High (78)

Next Steps

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