Will GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026?

Open · Resolves in 6 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

1.2%

24h Change

-6.2 pp

Signal Score

53/100

Data Confidence

High (81)

24h probability fell 6.2pp; volume is 5.5x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 2 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-08 08:07 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 6.2pp
24h volume is 5.5x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $27,906

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

1.2%

24h Change

-6.2 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

166 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 8, 08:00 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/8/2026, 8:00:00 AM	1.2%
8/8/2026, 7:00:00 AM	1.3%
8/8/2026, 6:00:00 AM	1.4%
8/8/2026, 5:00:00 AM	1.4%
8/8/2026, 4:00:00 AM	1.6%
8/8/2026, 3:00:00 AM	1.6%
8/8/2026, 2:00:00 AM	1.6%
8/8/2026, 1:00:00 AM	1.8%
8/8/2026, 12:00:00 AM	1.7%
8/7/2026, 11:00:00 PM	2.7%
8/7/2026, 10:00:00 PM	3.5%
8/7/2026, 9:00:00 PM	3.5%
8/7/2026, 8:00:00 PM	4.0%
8/7/2026, 7:00:00 PM	5.0%
8/7/2026, 6:00:00 PM	6.3%
8/7/2026, 5:00:00 PM	7.0%
8/7/2026, 4:00:00 PM	12.5%
8/7/2026, 3:00:00 PM	12.6%
8/7/2026, 2:00:00 PM	10.3%
8/7/2026, 1:00:00 PM	7.1%
8/7/2026, 12:00:00 PM	7.6%
8/7/2026, 11:00:00 AM	10.0%
8/7/2026, 10:00:00 AM	10.0%
8/7/2026, 9:00:00 AM	7.6%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-0.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$39.5K

Volume vs Baseline

5.5x baseline

Liquidity

$27.9K

Market Significance

Moderate (68)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 6 days

End Date

Aug 14, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 53/100.

Probability Momentum 21

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 82

Persistence 40

Data Confidence High (81)

Next Steps

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