Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?

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Current Probability

23.5%

24h Change

-6.0 pp

Signal Score

50/100

Data Confidence

High (80)

24h probability fell 6.0pp; volume is 6.7x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 5 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-12 22:45 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 6.0pp
24h volume is 6.7x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $51,022

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

23.5%

24h Change

-6.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

172 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 12, 10:45 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/12/2026, 10:45:00 PM	23.5%
8/12/2026, 10:00:00 PM	23.5%
8/12/2026, 9:00:00 PM	23.5%
8/12/2026, 8:45:00 PM	23.5%
8/12/2026, 8:00:00 PM	23.5%
8/12/2026, 7:00:00 PM	23.5%
8/12/2026, 6:00:00 PM	22.5%
8/12/2026, 5:00:00 PM	25.5%
8/12/2026, 4:00:00 PM	25.5%
8/12/2026, 3:00:00 PM	26.5%
8/12/2026, 2:00:00 PM	27.0%
8/12/2026, 1:15:00 PM	26.5%
8/12/2026, 1:00:00 PM	27.5%
8/12/2026, 12:00:00 PM	27.5%
8/12/2026, 11:00:00 AM	27.5%
8/12/2026, 10:00:00 AM	28.0%
8/12/2026, 9:15:00 AM	28.5%
8/12/2026, 9:00:00 AM	28.5%
8/12/2026, 8:00:00 AM	28.5%
8/12/2026, 7:30:00 AM	28.5%
8/12/2026, 7:00:00 AM	28.5%
8/12/2026, 6:00:00 AM	28.5%
8/12/2026, 5:30:00 AM	28.5%
8/12/2026, 5:00:00 AM	26.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$75.7K

Volume vs Baseline

6.7x baseline

Liquidity

$51.0K

Market Significance

High (78)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Aug 11, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 50/100.

Probability Momentum 20

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 86

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (80)

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