Will Russell Fry be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?

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Current Probability

0.1%

24h Change

-16.5 pp

Signal Score

66/100

Data Confidence

High (80)

24h probability fell 16.5pp; volume is 11.1x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 11 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-12 17:00 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 16.5pp
24h volume is 11.1x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $65,413

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.1%

24h Change

-16.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

162 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 12, 05:00 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/12/2026, 5:00:00 PM	0.1%
8/12/2026, 4:00:00 PM	0.1%
8/12/2026, 3:00:00 PM	0.1%
8/12/2026, 2:00:00 PM	0.1%
8/12/2026, 1:15:00 PM	0.1%
8/12/2026, 1:00:00 PM	0.1%
8/12/2026, 12:00:00 PM	0.1%
8/12/2026, 11:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/12/2026, 10:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/12/2026, 9:15:00 AM	0.1%
8/12/2026, 9:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/12/2026, 8:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/12/2026, 7:30:00 AM	0.1%
8/12/2026, 7:00:00 AM	0.3%
8/12/2026, 6:00:00 AM	0.4%
8/12/2026, 5:30:00 AM	0.4%
8/12/2026, 5:00:00 AM	0.6%
8/12/2026, 4:00:00 AM	0.5%
8/12/2026, 3:00:00 AM	0.5%
8/12/2026, 2:15:00 AM	0.5%
8/12/2026, 2:00:00 AM	0.5%
8/12/2026, 1:00:00 AM	0.7%
8/12/2026, 12:00:00 AM	8.8%
8/11/2026, 11:00:00 PM	15.8%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$56.0K

Volume vs Baseline

11.1x baseline

Liquidity

$65.4K

Market Significance

High (78)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Aug 11, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 66/100.

Probability Momentum 55

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 86

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (80)

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