Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?

South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner

Open · Resolves in 7 days View on Polymarket ↗ (opens in a new tab)

Current Probability

60.7%

24h Change

+2.7 pp

Signal Score

37/100

Data Confidence

High (82)

24h probability rose 2.7pp; volume is 2.5x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 3 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-01 07:36 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

  • 24h probability rose 2.7pp
  • 24h volume is 2.5x the prior 6-day daily average
  • Liquidity depth $77,528

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Latest 60.7% · Aug 1, 07:30 AM

51% 57% 64% Jul 31 Jul 31 Jul 31 Aug 1 Current 60.7% · 7d of stored history · 25 pts

Current

60.7%

24h Change

+2.7 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

73 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 1, 07:30 AM

View history table
Time Probability
8/1/2026, 7:30:00 AM 60.7%
8/1/2026, 7:00:00 AM 60.6%
8/1/2026, 6:00:00 AM 60.6%
8/1/2026, 5:00:00 AM 60.7%
8/1/2026, 4:00:00 AM 60.6%
8/1/2026, 3:00:00 AM 60.7%
8/1/2026, 2:00:00 AM 60.4%
8/1/2026, 1:00:00 AM 60.1%
8/1/2026, 12:00:00 AM 62.1%
7/31/2026, 11:00:00 PM 59.9%
7/31/2026, 10:00:00 PM 60.9%
7/31/2026, 9:00:00 PM 62.7%
7/31/2026, 8:00:00 PM 52.0%
7/31/2026, 7:00:00 PM 51.9%
7/31/2026, 6:00:00 PM 52.6%
7/31/2026, 5:00:00 PM 54.4%
7/31/2026, 4:00:00 PM 54.4%
7/31/2026, 3:00:00 PM 55.4%
7/31/2026, 2:00:00 PM 57.0%
7/31/2026, 1:00:00 PM 57.8%
7/31/2026, 12:00:00 PM 58.1%
7/31/2026, 11:00:00 AM 58.0%
7/31/2026, 10:00:00 AM 58.1%
7/31/2026, 9:00:00 AM 58.1%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+0.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$46.2K

Volume vs Baseline

2.5x baseline

Liquidity

$77.5K

Market Significance

High (71)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 7 days

End Date

Aug 11, 2026

Attention Score

48

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 37/100.

Probability Momentum 9
Volume Activity 56
Liquidity Quality 86
Persistence 42
Data Confidence High (82)

Next Steps

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