US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?

Open · Resolves in 12 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

46.5%

24h Change

+1.0 pp

Signal Score

25/100

Data Confidence

High (79)

24h probability rose 1.0pp; volume is 1.7x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 58 minutes ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-04 10:16 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 1.0pp
24h volume is 1.7x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $44,790

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

46.5%

24h Change

+1.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

160 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 4, 10:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/4/2026, 10:15:00 AM	46.5%
8/4/2026, 10:00:00 AM	47.0%
8/4/2026, 9:00:00 AM	48.0%
8/4/2026, 8:00:00 AM	45.0%
8/4/2026, 7:15:00 AM	45.5%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 AM	45.5%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 AM	45.5%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 AM	45.5%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 AM	45.5%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 AM	46.0%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 AM	47.0%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 AM	41.5%
8/4/2026, 12:00:00 AM	41.5%
8/3/2026, 11:45:00 PM	40.5%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 PM	44.0%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 PM	45.0%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 PM	44.0%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 PM	46.0%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 PM	42.0%
8/3/2026, 6:15:00 PM	43.5%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 PM	36.5%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 PM	37.5%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM	37.0%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 PM	38.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-1.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$102.2K

Volume vs Baseline

1.7x baseline

Liquidity

$44.8K

Market Significance

High (72)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 12 days

End Date

Aug 15, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 25/100.

Probability Momentum 3

Volume Activity 34

Liquidity Quality 87

Persistence 10

Data Confidence High (79)

Next Steps

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