US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?

Open · Resolves in 24 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

74.5%

24h Change

+2.5 pp

Signal Score

26/100

Data Confidence

High (79)

24h probability rose 2.5pp; volume is 1.6x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 2 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-08 08:07 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 2.5pp
24h volume is 1.6x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $79,834

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

74.5%

24h Change

+2.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

169 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 8, 08:00 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/8/2026, 8:00:00 AM	74.5%
8/8/2026, 7:00:00 AM	75.5%
8/8/2026, 6:00:00 AM	75.5%
8/8/2026, 5:00:00 AM	75.5%
8/8/2026, 4:15:00 AM	75.5%
8/8/2026, 4:00:00 AM	75.5%
8/8/2026, 3:00:00 AM	74.5%
8/8/2026, 2:00:00 AM	75.5%
8/8/2026, 1:00:00 AM	77.5%
8/8/2026, 12:00:00 AM	77.5%
8/7/2026, 11:45:00 PM	77.5%
8/7/2026, 11:00:00 PM	75.5%
8/7/2026, 10:00:00 PM	75.0%
8/7/2026, 9:00:00 PM	73.5%
8/7/2026, 8:00:00 PM	75.0%
8/7/2026, 7:00:00 PM	73.5%
8/7/2026, 6:00:00 PM	73.5%
8/7/2026, 5:00:00 PM	72.5%
8/7/2026, 4:00:00 PM	71.5%
8/7/2026, 3:00:00 PM	71.5%
8/7/2026, 2:00:00 PM	71.5%
8/7/2026, 1:00:00 PM	68.5%
8/7/2026, 12:00:00 PM	71.0%
8/7/2026, 11:00:00 AM	71.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-1.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$74.5K

Volume vs Baseline

1.6x baseline

Liquidity

$79.8K

Market Significance

High (73)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 24 days

End Date

Aug 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 26/100.

Probability Momentum 8

Volume Activity 28

Liquidity Quality 88

Persistence 10

Data Confidence High (79)

Next Steps

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