US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?

Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?

Open · Resolves in 28 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

33.0%

24h Change

-9.5 pp

Signal Score

37/100

Data Confidence

High (80)

24h probability fell 9.5pp; volume is 1.6x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 5 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-07-30 07:42 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 9.5pp
24h volume is 1.6x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $66,052

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

33.0%

24h Change

-9.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

44 stored snapshots · Latest sample Jul 30, 07:30 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
7/30/2026, 7:30:00 AM	33.0%
7/30/2026, 7:00:00 AM	33.0%
7/30/2026, 6:00:00 AM	33.0%
7/30/2026, 5:00:00 AM	31.5%
7/30/2026, 4:00:00 AM	31.5%
7/30/2026, 3:00:00 AM	31.5%
7/30/2026, 2:00:00 AM	31.5%
7/30/2026, 1:00:00 AM	31.5%
7/30/2026, 12:00:00 AM	32.0%
7/29/2026, 11:00:00 PM	31.5%
7/29/2026, 10:00:00 PM	30.5%
7/29/2026, 9:00:00 PM	34.5%
7/29/2026, 8:00:00 PM	34.0%
7/29/2026, 7:00:00 PM	34.0%
7/29/2026, 6:00:00 PM	33.5%
7/29/2026, 5:00:00 PM	33.5%
7/29/2026, 4:00:00 PM	33.5%
7/29/2026, 3:00:00 PM	36.0%
7/29/2026, 2:00:00 PM	41.5%
7/29/2026, 1:00:00 PM	42.0%
7/29/2026, 12:00:00 PM	42.5%
7/29/2026, 11:00:00 AM	42.5%
7/29/2026, 10:00:00 AM	43.0%
7/29/2026, 9:00:00 AM	43.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$41.5K

Volume vs Baseline

1.6x baseline

Liquidity

$66.1K

Market Significance

High (71)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 28 days

End Date

Aug 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 37/100.

Probability Momentum 32

Volume Activity 29

Liquidity Quality 85

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (80)

Next Steps

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