Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

Open · Resolves in 27 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

4.8%

24h Change

-1.2 pp

Signal Score

21/100

Data Confidence

High (82)

24h probability fell 1.2pp; volume is 0.6x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 1 day ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-03 07:36 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 1.2pp
24h volume is 0.6x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $157,444

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

4.8%

24h Change

-1.2 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

136 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 3, 07:30 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/3/2026, 7:30:00 AM	4.8%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 AM	4.8%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 AM	4.8%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 AM	4.6%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 AM	4.3%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 AM	4.7%
8/3/2026, 2:00:00 AM	5.3%
8/3/2026, 1:00:00 AM	5.3%
8/3/2026, 12:00:00 AM	4.5%
8/2/2026, 11:00:00 PM	4.4%
8/2/2026, 10:00:00 PM	4.0%
8/2/2026, 9:00:00 PM	4.5%
8/2/2026, 8:00:00 PM	5.5%
8/2/2026, 7:00:00 PM	5.5%
8/2/2026, 6:00:00 PM	5.5%
8/2/2026, 5:00:00 PM	5.5%
8/2/2026, 4:00:00 PM	5.5%
8/2/2026, 3:00:00 PM	5.5%
8/2/2026, 2:00:00 PM	5.5%
8/2/2026, 1:00:00 PM	5.5%
8/2/2026, 12:00:00 PM	6.0%
8/2/2026, 11:45:00 AM	6.5%
8/2/2026, 11:00:00 AM	6.5%
8/2/2026, 10:00:00 AM	6.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-0.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$35.0K

Volume vs Baseline

0.6x baseline

Liquidity

$157.4K

Market Significance

High (72)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 27 days

End Date

Aug 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 21/100.

Probability Momentum 4

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 85

Persistence 42

Data Confidence High (82)

Next Steps

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