Will Lucas Jumalon Win the 2026 WSOP Main Event?

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Current Probability

38.5%

24h Change

+4.0 pp

Signal Score

46/100

Data Confidence

High (79)

24h probability rose 4.0pp; volume is 9.2x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 1 hour ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-04 10:16 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 4.0pp
24h volume is 9.2x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $10,338

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

38.5%

24h Change

+4.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

168 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 4, 10:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/4/2026, 10:15:00 AM	38.5%
8/4/2026, 10:00:00 AM	38.5%
8/4/2026, 9:00:00 AM	38.5%
8/4/2026, 8:00:00 AM	38.5%
8/4/2026, 7:15:00 AM	39.5%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 AM	37.5%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 AM	24.5%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 AM	27.0%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 AM	33.5%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 AM	37.0%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 AM	37.5%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 AM	38.5%
8/4/2026, 12:00:00 AM	33.5%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 PM	33.5%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 PM	34.5%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 PM	36.0%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 PM	36.5%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 PM	35.5%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 PM	35.5%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 PM	35.5%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM	34.5%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 PM	34.5%
8/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM	34.5%
8/3/2026, 1:00:00 PM	34.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$50.1K

Volume vs Baseline

9.2x baseline

Liquidity

$10.3K

Market Significance

High (73)

Market Status

Open

End Date

—

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 46/100.

Probability Momentum 13

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 79

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (79)

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